The Statis Pro Notebook

Number 3

Comparing the Stats to Real Life

I've made it a habit at the end of recent seasons to compare how the game results compare to what actually happened, and so the habit continues!

Using the top ten batters and pitchers from Division One, I present how they did in the replay and how they did in real life, with real life stats in parenthesis. Division One results are used because of the 140 game season that approximates the old 154 game schedule...

Batting (avg., 2B-3B-HR)

S.Musial .355, 27-5-23 (.346, 41-7-28)
G.Kell .352, 55-2-9 (.340, 56-6-8)
J.Pesky .347, 10-6-0 (.312, 22-6-1)
M.Vernon .341, 20-4-8 (.306, 17-3-9)
L.Doby .334, 22-5-25 (.326, 25-5-25)
R.Ashburn .313, 23-11-0 (.303, 25-14-2)
R.Hartsfield .311, 18-1-3 (.277, 15-2-7)
C.Furillo .310, 34-7-14 (.305, 30-6-18)
J.Robinson .310, 38-3-21 (.328, 39-4-14)
E.Valo .310, 19-4-5 (.280, 16-5-10)

What I like about these games is that there is always the possibility to come as near to an exact reproduction of how a player performed. The home run hitters hit home runs, the batting average guys do their thing, etc. All ther games used in this 5Y League project do this. If everything came out exactly the same as in real life, there would be little point to doing a replay. Larry Doby's results are a great example. His batting average in Statis Pro was .008 higher than in real life. His doubles in SP were three fewer than what he hit in 1950, but remarkably his triples and home runs are on the money. In SP, Stan Musial crushed what he actually did as far as doubles, and he was under in triples and home runs, with two fewer three baggers and five fewer circuit shots. George Kell nearly duplcated his doubles and home run numbers, though his batting average came out much higher than in real life. This is fun stuff! Look at Carl Furillo...He hit five points better than his actual .305 batting average, and was within four of each of his power numbers. Mickey Vernon creamed his actual batting average, and his power numbers were all within three of what really happened that year. Jackie Robinson went home run happy in Statis Pro, with his doubles and triples coming in within one of real life stats. Good job overall with how Statis Pro did with batting stats. On to pitching, the more difficult part of baseball to replicate on the table-top...

Pitching (ERA, HA, K, BB)

S.Maglie 1.00, 94-46-53 (2.71, 169-96-86)
V.Bickford 3.20, 218-71-95 (3.46, 293-126-122)
M.Dickson 3.28, 213-62-84 (3.80, 227-76-83)
F.Hiller 3.35, 153-67-52 (3.53, 153-55-32)
P.Roe 3.36, 235-104-89 (3.30, 245-125-66)
D.Trout 3.51, 177-64-67 (3.75, 190-88-64)
B.Feller 3.64, 238-99-114 (3.43, 230-119-103)
S.Jones 3.73, 215-88-110 (4.61, 188-97-90)
S.Hudson 3.87, 249-83-112 (4.08, 261-75-98)
H.Brecheen 3.93, 174-80-58 (3.81, 151-80-45)
H.Pollet 3.93, 214-83-82 (3.30, 228-117-68)

The first season of the Retro 5Y League was based on the 1948 season. I didn't do my homework during the prep work for the replay until I began playing the games. I discovered that walks given up by pitchers were much higher than normal. Way up there. It got to the point where I thought I would never finish the first year. The trend continues through the early fifties before strikeouts come back. SP handled walks by pitchers as well as Extra Innings and APBA did. ERA is much tougher. Almost impossible to get within ten, fifteen points of actual. Sasl Maglie had a monster year and was underused. None of his replay numbers are anywhere close to actual. That's okay though. He had a very good year in '50, and didn't get the innings he should have with the Blues this past season. Same with Vern Bickford, who threw more than 300 innings that year. Murry Dickson came close to his hits allowed, strikeout and walk totals, while Frank Hiller came very close to real-life. Can't complain much about Preacher Roe's SP stats, as his ERA was only six points higher than his 1950 results. Feller came pretty close to his real life numbers, while Dizzy Trout was in the vicinity of the ball park with his replay stats. Sheldon Jones was way off in ERA, but trended in the other categories to real life results. Harry Brecheen was close in ERA and he nailed his strikeout total. Howie Pollet? Meh...apart from ERA, he did better than real life in the other three categories. Another round of applause for Statis Pro, please!